WASHINGTON (DTN) -- A new report from U.S. Farmers and Ranchers in Action and its partners predicts the U.S. could lose roughly 30 million corn acres by 2050 if new sources of feed demand are not found and the ethanol blending rate remains at 10%.

The study, completed by S&P Global Energy's consulting group, created a high-growth, optimized scenario where technology is not limited by food and fuel demand. New markets, such as year-round E15, maritime fuels and aviation fuels, could pave the way for farm profitability and rural prosperity.

The report comes as the Senate is expected to take up E15 legislation. The House passed E15 legislation in a close but bipartisan vote in mid-May.

The report entitled "Fueling Agriculture: Biofuels as The Catalyst" said a higher blend rate, in addition to a convergence of technology, would "lift U.S. corn yields by 1.6% annually through 2050, unlocking nearly 50% more production without expanding acreage."

At the current blend rate, the U.S. would progressively lose ethanol market share as gasoline consumption declines, resulting in a loss of 6.6 billion gallons of ethanol demand by 2050.

The land mass lost, the report estimates, would be 30 million acres, equivalent to halting production on a land mass the size of North Carolina.

Chip Bowling, a Maryland crop farmer and vice chair of USF&RA, spoke at the Capitol Hill briefing.

"We're producing more grain than ever, thanks to higher yields and better technology, but demand hasn't kept pace. This means too much supply chasing too little demand," he said.

While debate over year-round E15 expansion has centered on crop prices and future feedstock demand, this report adds another dimension: the potential loss of millions of acres of U.S. cropland and economic consequences for rural communities.

"That would devastate communities like mine. It would mean more struggling family farms, fewer local agribusiness jobs, closed equipment dealerships, and more young people moving to cities rather than continuing generational farms," Bowling said.

In the high-growth scenario, total U.S. corn acres would stabilize at 97.5 million acres in 2050, just 1% below 2025 levels.

But without additional biofuel expansion, the report projects ethanol demand would fall by 6.6 billion gallons by 2050 as ethanol captures a smaller share of the U.S. gasoline market. "In a no-action path, marked by policy inertia and limited investment, biofuels are projected to remain a niche contributor," the report said.

But opportunity was found in the Environmental Protection Agency's March RVOs, which gave soybean oil a significant increase from 5.42 billion gallons in 2025 to 8.95 billion gallons in 2027. "Clearly the new RVOs signal continued support for U.S. farmers, the soybean supply chain and biofuel use expansion," it said.

In a statement after its release, Renewable Fuels Association President and CEO Geoff Cooper said the global demand for row crops has failed to keep pace with higher yields and rising production. "We encourage policymakers to carefully consider the results of this important new research."

But the policy path for corn ethanol remains uncertain, including House-passed E15 legislation. Some refining interests opposed E15 packages tied to changes in small refinery exemption rules, while the American Soybean Association argued such provisions would weaken the Renewable Fuel Standard and reduce the long-term gains in soybean oil demand from biofuels.

The report did not take a side on future legislation, but its opening speakers did.

GRASSLEY: FINDING A WAY FORWARD

Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, a long-time E15 champion, spoke passionately at the release event in favor of the report, but also criticized organizations that spoke up against E15 in the House floor vote.

"I see an opportunity here to move it, but so do small refineries to get their fingers in the cookie jar to get some of the benefit from it that we never heard anything about for the last eight years."

In the House floor vote, organizations like The Fueling American Jobs Coalition and the Small Refineries of America campaigned publicly for its failure. The American Soybean Association released a last-minute statement about its risks and net loss for beans, while not formally taking a position on the bill.

"We have never heard anything from small refineries. We've never heard anything from the American Soybean Association," Grassley shouted, angered that objections were brought this late in the conversation. "Don't stand on the sideline!"

The bill sits in Senate Majority Leader John Thune's hands, and Senate Agriculture Committee Chairman John Boozman, R-Ark., has said the House version would not be included when he issues his draft of the farm bill.

The E15 passage timeline and a procedural home were Grassley's next concern. "Four weeks in July, no weeks in August, two weeks in September, the month of October is off," he said, noting the limited time left to reach a deal. "Then you're in the next year, and we've lost all opportunity, so we not only need a plan to get a final agreement on the language of legislation ... but we also got to have a process."

That process, Grassley said at the event, could include an appearance in the defense appropriations bill, or locations other than the authoring committee.

When continuing resolutions enter the equation, Grassley said in a call with reporters, "we've lost E15."

MARITIME AND SUSTAINABLE AVIATION FUEL

New markets discussed in the report are not exclusive to corn ethanol, but also include off-road transportation fuels, including aviation and marine fuels.

U.S. gasoline demand could drop by up to 25% over the next 25 years, even as ethanol production capacity continues to grow. This creates a mismatch: more ethanol supply but declining demand in traditional gasoline markets, explained lead author of the report Kevin Lindemer, vice president of CERA Consulting's Downstream and Biofuels practice at S&P Global Energy.

By 2050, renewable fuels could capture more of the nearly 940-billion-gallon global liquid fuels market.

The market is preparing. "Ships are being ordered that are compatible with methanol ethanol blends," Lindemer said. But the challenge exists in an International Maritime Organization (IMO) framework for marine fuels that the USDA has declined to support.

"Marine represents, we think, a major market for ethanol, except (the) IMO, at this point, their rules are they can't be crop-based ethanol," he said.

Kelsey Berns, senior adviser to the Secretary for rural development and biofuels at the USDA, responded to the criticism at the event. "Just because we're not going to support a net-zero framework that is really good for Brazil does not mean that we're not going to support a framework for our farmers to be able to benefit from maritime fuels," she said.

In May, Brazil secured a significant regulatory victory at the International Maritime Organization, giving the country an advantage over the United States and other competitors in the race to supply biofuels for ocean shipping.

Indicating regular meetings with the Department of State and the Maritime Fuel Coalition, Berns said it was the "next big lever we are looking at."

Showing what could lie ahead for the sustainable aviation fuel market, Lindemer pointed to international examples where policy support has helped establish demand. Countries such as the European Union, United Kingdom and Singapore have implemented SAF mandates, creating built-in markets for production despite recent headwinds from lower oil prices and uncertainty around renewable diesel investment decisions.

"We just don't have those kinds of supportive policies here in the United States," he said.

House Passes Farm Bill But Strips E15: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

See Report: Fueling Agriculture: Biofuels as The Catalyst:

https://fuelingagriculture.com/….

ASA Statement on House Passage of Year-Round E15 Legislation: https://x.com/….

Jake Zajkowski can be reached at Jake.Zajkowski@dtn.com

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